Application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model to Forecast Electricity Consumption for Nigeria

Abstract

The electricity demand relative to supply has increased in the developed and developing economies. Hence, forecasting adequate electricity supply plays a crucial role in driving economic production activities and growth. This is so because electricity supply in relation to demand is vital for future energy planning and policy formulation. Thus, this study employed the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and data on electricity consumption from 1971 to 2014. The result indicates that the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model is adequate for forecasting and modelling electricity consumption in Nigeria in the short run. Based on this finding, we recommended that researchers and policymakers employ the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) model when forecasting electricity supply in Nigeria.